Build Better Strategies! Part 2: Model-Based Systems

Trading systems come in two flavors: model-based and data-mining. This article deals with model based strategies. The algorithms are often astoundingly simple, but properly developing them has its difficulties and pitfalls (otherwise anyone would be doing it). Even a significant market inefficiency gives a system only a relatively small edge. A little mistake can turn a winning strategy into a losing one.  And you will not necessarily see this in the backtest.  Continue reading “Build Better Strategies! Part 2: Model-Based Systems”

Build Better Strategies!

Enough blog posts, papers, and books deal with how to properly optimize and test trading systems. But there is little information about how to get to such a system in the first place. The described strategies often seem to have appeared out of thin air. Does a trading system require some sort of epiphany? Or is there a systematic approach to developing it?
   This post is the first of a small series in which I’ll attempt a methodical way to build trading strategies. The first part deals with the two main methods of strategy development, with market hypotheses and with a Swiss Franc case study. Continue reading “Build Better Strategies!”